Menu

Category: Blog

Semis & Banks Offer Opposing Views – Home Heating Oil Update

It has been a crummy little stretch for stocks and other risk assets, having given back the entire Jay Powell pivot chat from last week.That was when Fed Chair Powell was interviewed by David Wessel and really just slightly came off his uber hawkish view and said that a 1/2% hike was coming next week. As I have been writing about for months the dollar and the 10-Year have come way off their highs which is good for stocks and […]   Read More
Date: December 7, 2022

White Hot Jobs Market & Yields Go Down

On Friday the government released the employment report for November which showed 263,000 new jobs being created. That was well above the 200,000 estimated. Unemployment remained steady at 3.7%. We also saw wages increase at 5.1% on an annualized basis. While this is great news for Americans and the economy, it is not what Jay Powell and the Fed wanted to see. Recall that the Fed is on an inflation fighting crusade. Let’s remember that Fed action takes 6-9 month […]   Read More
Date: December 5, 2022

More Props For The Bulls

Wednesday was a huge day for the bulls. It started out mildly until Fed Chair Powell spoke with David Wessel from the Brookings Institute. Then the fuse got lit and risk on assets soared. Almost 90% of the day’s volume was in stocks that went up. The Dow Industrials, S&P 500, S&P 400 and NASDAQ 100 all went to new highs for Q4. Only the Russell 2000 lags. Below you can see the percent of stocks in the S&P 500 […]   Read More
Date: December 2, 2022

Slice It How You Want, Yield Curves Point To Recession in 2023

It’s no secret that I have been steadfast this year that the U.S. economy has not been in recession. And yes, I do know that both Q1 and Q2 saw negative GDP growth. It doesn’t matter. That’s not a recession. Sorry. And I am not going to feed into the political nonsense regarding the definition of recession. The National Bureau of Economic Research is the final arbiter of recessions, not politicians nor pundits. Anyway, my economic forecast for 2023 isn’t […]   Read More
Date: November 30, 2022

Seasonal Headwind Today As Black Friday & Cyber Monday Get Weighed

Welcome back to the last week of November. I hope you had a great Thanksgiving! I ate my face off and just finished leftovers this morning for breakfast. I refuse to loosen my belt so it’s going to be an uncomfortable week. My mom and wife went all out with the traditional fare as well as something unusual. Teri makes the single best challah on earth and last week she shaped one into a turkey. Between the Cowboys winning and […]   Read More
Date: November 28, 2022

The Pieces Are Falling Into Place

As I mentioned on Monday this week has a seasonal tailwind, but especially Wednesday and Friday. Then next Monday has a headwind. I found it so interesting that as stocks rallied in broad-based fashion on Tuesday, pundits became so enamored. Since the October 13th bottom, all we have heard was folks selling the bear market rally. Now it seems like pundits pivoted to buying for a year-end rally. I guess after a 12% rally in the S&P 500, the masses […]   Read More
Date: November 23, 2022

Europe & Dow Showing Emerging Index Leadership As Dollar Plummets

Thanksgiving week is here! I love Thanksgiving. I think it’s my favorite holiday. Food, family, football and fun. Markets do too with the week being historically strong. While Monday and Tuesday do not have a tailwind, Wednesday and Friday certainly do. And then one week from today is a seasonally weak day. Since the big bottom in October we know that Europe and NASDAQ 100 rallied the most to the recent highs. S&P 400, emerging markets, Dow Industrials and Russell […]   Read More
Date: November 21, 2022

Gridlock Is Good

I spent yesterday in NYC for the first time since early June. And I did something I said I would never do again, or at least for 5 years. I rode the subway, multiple times. I was surprised at how empty it was. I was surprised that people take dogs on now which is against the rules. I was shocked at how many just jumped the turnstile in front of MTA agents and not a single person even flinched. Why […]   Read More
Date: November 18, 2022

The Fall of SBF Continues as Markets Yawn

The FTX news and spectacular collapse of the company and crypto poster boy, Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF), continues. From 10,000 creditors, last I saw it was up t0 1,000,000 creditors. Other crypto firms are being wiped out in the contagion. Thankfully, it seems limited to that sector and is not systemic. SBF is yet another in a long line of supposed transcenders who knew better and ended up in ruin. The Hunt brothers with silver in 1980. Bernie Madoff in 2008. […]   Read More
Date: November 16, 2022

And They Called ME An Idiot

Last week was chock full of news on all fronts. There was something for everyone, including my Cowboys embarrassingly falling apart in the fourth quarter. Inflation, markets, crypto and geopolitics. I intended to cover everything in detail in this video below, but there just wasn’t time although I was able to touch on all topics. And They Called ME An Idiot In one portion of the video above, I forgot to list some high profile and well-heeled big money investors […]   Read More
Date: November 14, 2022