***Q2 Client Update***
The second quarter of 2025 was one of those rare and very interesting periods on more than one front. However, the quarter really played out as the first few weeks of April and then the rest of the quarter. The world came into Q2 acutely focused on what President Trump deemed “Liberation Day”, that day when the administration’s trade policy was going to free the U.S. from its dependence on much of its international trade as well as level the […]
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Date: August 1, 2025
A Pullback Will Come
Stocks continue to creep higher as I discussed the other day. We have the Fed meeting today and tomorrow with the announcement of no rate cut on Wednesday at 2pm. However, the markets will be looking for signs that a cut is coming this fall. We are also the heart of Q2 earnings season and the stock market has been unusually quiet. The mega tech companies are on deck and they usually provide some fireworks. The stock market looks a […]
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Date: July 29, 2025
Stocks Grind Higher As Sentiment Becomes Giddy & Greedy
The stock market has morphed into what I like to call a “grinder” or “creeper” market, meaning that stocks just grind or creep higher without any pullbacks of more than 1% or so. This behavior is usually seen during the second leg of a new bull market rally after the masses did widespread selling at or near the bottom, followed by a vicious initial leg of the rally where the majority believes it is just a bounce with more selling […]
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Date: July 25, 2025
Is Market Participation A Warning Sign?
Happy Monday! Well, are Mondays really ever “happy”, especially such a nice weekend? FYI, my publishing schedule may be a bit off over the next two weeks as I am traveling and trying to complete my Q2 report to clients following the webinar. As you know I have been less bullish the last few posts, but not bearish. I think a 2-5% pullback is setting up this quarter. In all likelihood it will be one to buy. I have reviewed […]
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Date: July 21, 2025
Looking For Downside Confirmation
On Wednesday I wrote some of our models turning down on the stock market and that action would be forthcoming, which it was on our capital appreciation strategies. We jettisoned some laggards and losers and trimmed position sizes in some big winners. Our aggressive strategies remain solidly positive for now. When this happens our strategies usually higher turnover as they jockey around. However, we still need to see downside confirmation before taking more serious protective measures. That looks to be […]
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Date: July 18, 2025
Bears Get Something To Chew On
Stocks have been on a tear. No sane person could argue against that. Pullbacks have been almost nil since mid-April. And volatility? Well, the VIX has been below 20 for a month, signaling an “easier” time to be invested, even with leverage. Remember, VIX above 30 makes it tough to invest. VIX above 40 makes it really difficult to invest. Above that, well, you can fill in the blank. On Tuesday we saw the major stock market indices jump at […]
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Date: July 16, 2025
Looking At Industrials, Transports And Utilities
You know your day (and a Monday) isn’t off on the right foot when you come downstairs and almost go flying as you step with both feet into a puddle that turned out to be dog urine. Then, my Windows 11 upgrade from 10 deleted all search capabilities in Outlook and rendered my planning software useless. Not exactly the best start to the day and week. There was more tariff news over the weekend. On again. Off again. Same story. […]
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Date: July 14, 2025
What My 4 Key Sectors Say
With the stock market or near all-time highs, let’s drill down and focus on my four key sectors to further gauge market health. Recall, we recently looked at new highs and then the NYSE A/D to asses market participation. The semiconductors are first. While they are not yet at new highs, it’s hard to argue that they are lagging or holding the market back. I do expect new highs this year. Banks are next. Remember all those Chicken Littles crying […]
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Date: July 11, 2025
NASDAQ 100 Leading Like A Champ
Another quick blog as I get ready for media today and tomorrow in NYC as well as prepare for our quarterly webinar series tonight at 8pm. The NASDAQ 100 has been leading the rally which is a good thing. As I wrote the other day, new highs have been expanding, also a good thing. The NDX below is but a day from new highs. I cannot believe the only pullback we will see has already been seen this week. That […]
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Date: July 9, 2025
New Highs & New Lows
I hope everyone had a great long July 4th weekend! This is a super quick update as I am trying to wrap up end of month, quarter and half year reconciliation. One of the main complaints from the bears about the rally is that not enough stocks are hitting new highs. And they have been correct. That’s typical of year three in a bull market. However, the chart below shows a resurgence in new highs late last week. While it’s […]
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Date: July 7, 2025
