Indices Poised For New Highs But They Better Not Fail First
The strong breadth thrust I wrote about continues to power the stock market higher in what is a very strong seasonal period. In other words, there is a good market tailwind from the calendar. The thrust was the catalyst. However, with only a 6% pullback, the thrust was not a bell-ringing, go all in and not worry signal. Rather, it was a good spot in an ongoing bull market to add money, add some risk, prune and plant. If you […]
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Date: December 5, 2025
Bulls Turn Tide – All-Time Highs – Bitcoin
The first three days of the current rally saw a surge in the number of stocks going versus down, otherwise known as a breadth thrust. Think of it like a rocket ship taking off. The strongest acceleration is from the launch pad to get the rocket going. Then, it has speed and decelerates to lower thrust. That’s how markets work from lows in many situations. In this case, the thrust was an historic one and that’s because the decline was […]
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Date: December 3, 2025
Thanksgiving Rally Delivers – December Supposed To Be Up
Welcome to December. The home stretch for 2025. I hope you had a happy and peaceful Thanksgiving that included great food and football! I have to admit that I was shocked the Cowboys beat Philly and KC in a span of four days, going from irrelevant to playoff contender. Our family went against consensus and took a family trip to the Cayman Islands for the week that included an awful lot of sun, food, drinks and together time. I don’t […]
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Date: December 1, 2025
Bulls Fight Back But Landscape Unchanged
The bulls certainly fought back with vengeance the last two days after Thursday’s ugly reversal rout. That’s not surprising given the pullback got to the 5% mark during a time of year when larger declines are rare, save 2000, 2007 and 2018. And let’s not forget that so many investors are still chasing risk assets from having panicked and sold right at the tariff tantrum lows in April. The great performance chase has been on throughout the past few months. […]
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Date: November 25, 2025
Nvidia Soars & Plunges As Bonds Outperform Bitcoin With A New Set Up
On Wednesday I wrote about my total lack of conviction on how Nvidia’s stock would react to earnings, even if I knew exactly what they would report. Well, they reported an absolute homerun, blowout quarter with everything clicking on all cylinders. The stock and the stock market soared at the open. Lots of chirping and giddiness on social media. However, a funny thing happened on the way to the celebration; sellers flooded the markets. Nvidia is below. While the media […]
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Date: November 21, 2025
Hated Set Up Playing Out As Volatility Rises Into Nvidia
Let’s start with the pullback which is now back to 5% on the S&P 500, an area that usually holds in the strongest bull markets. It would be tidier if we saw a quick plunge below the October bottom that coincided with a spike in fear. That should set up the markets for a nice year-end rally. The other day I wrote about a hated set up in the stock market that is playing out negatively as it often does. […]
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Date: November 19, 2025
Master Of The Universe Closes Firm – Concerning
Last week, famed perma-bear, Michael Burry, announced he was closing up shop because his models have not been in sync with the markets for many years. Before dismissing this as just another Chicken Little calling it quits, Burry did parlay his Armageddon view into billions during the Great Financial Crisis which later became the book and movie called The Big Short. Since his generational trade 17 years ago, almost every single public call he has made has been a dud […]
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Date: November 17, 2025
Pucker Up – One Of My Most Hated Setups
For all of the cringe-worthy commentary from the media and pundits you would think the stock market is down at least 10%. It’s not. At its worst last week, the pullback was 5%. Thursday was an ugly day after a nice rally off of last week’s low. One of my most hated setups is when the stock market forms a low, rallies but does not make a new high and then rolls over; exactly what is currently happening. That can […]
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Date: November 14, 2025
Dow Surges To All-Time Highs – Narrowness Not Totally Narrow
As I tweeted and wrote here, last Friday was not a day to sit on your hands and do nothing. Stocks got down to the -5% pullback line where the healthiest of bull markets like to find buyers. And some of our models replanted cash into some “risk on” areas. The risk/reward looked to be roughly 2/1 to the upside with a close below Friday’s low as the point at which I would know I was wrong. Somewhat oddly, the […]
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Date: November 12, 2025
DC Gets Back To Work – New Highs With Defined Risk
The nonsense that was yet another government shutdown has apparently ended. While there has been bipartisan support to reopen the government for weeks, there is now the 60 votes required in the Senate. Focusing solely on the economy and markets, the great news is that the government will quickly gather and release a slew of economic data that was unable to be received during the shutdown. As such, markets will need some time to digest and may cause some short-lived […]
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Date: November 10, 2025
