Stock Market Bottom Could Be In As Tariffs Begin
Tariff day is here. Love it or hate it, we have another highly anticipated event after the close. My sentiments have been shared many times. I am firmly against tariffs. All of them. Not just what the U.S. is retaliating for. No one wins a trade war. There are just varying degrees of losers. I hate losing. I heard a Canadian politician on TV this morning saying how much he loved the American people. His beef was only with Donald […]
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Date: April 2, 2025
Here’s The Good News – Stocks Getting Close
Interesting stats to begin the new week. When the stock market decline more than 1% on the 4th Friday of the month the next 7 days are usually up significantly. On top of that, April begins tomorrow and we know that when April starts the month in a downtrend like today, the month averages +2.5%. That’s a powerful seasonal tailwind. Last Wednesday I wrote that I thought it was an opportune time for the bears to come out. I thought […]
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Date: March 31, 2025
Bears Coming Out? Inflation Data Now Partisan
The bounce from the March 13th low continues. That’s good although it should run into some bears this week as it has retraced about 40% of what it lost since February 19th. Recall that my second most likely scenario was a weaker rally that failed somewhere around 6000. It is still too early to say which scenario will play out. We do know that the on again, off again tariff saga remains in full play with April 2nd looming. Long-term […]
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Date: March 26, 2025
Eliminating One Scenario
Since the whole idea of tariffs and trade wars became reality this year, I have said that we will know when the market has fully priced it all in. That day comes when Donald Trump announces some new and large tariffs, but the stock market rallies. That will tell us that the market has moved on to other worries. That day is not today. Stocks saw sharp losses on Friday that were reversed after President Trump waffled again on the […]
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Date: March 24, 2025
Three Scenarios For The Next Few Months
The stock market enters Friday with a very modest gain on the week. However, pre-market looks weak and that gain will likely be wiped away. The bounce from the recent low has been impressive with back to back days where 90% of the volume took place in stocks that went up. But that is not a bell ringing buy signal in the short-term. It does indicate that the majority of the price damage has been done. A good number of […]
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Date: March 21, 2025
***SPECIAL Fed Day Update – Powell Behind The Curve Yet Again – Stocks To New Highs?***
The model for today is plus or minus 0.50% and then a rally after 2pm. It’s a decent signal, but not as good after the bulls rallied stocks into the close. However, any morning weakness towards 0.50% should be bought. Jay Powell and the FOMC are going to leave interest rates unchanged today and likely pivot to dovish with the possibility of a rate cut in May. They SHOULD be cutting rates by 0.25% today and another 0.25% in May […]
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Date: March 19, 2025
“A” Low Has Been Seen
Stocks finally saw a meaningful bounce on Friday. I imagine there were an awful lot of people short the market on Thursday when the S&P 500 breached the recent lows. 90% of the volume came in stocks that went up. Longtime readers may recall that 90% is an historically significant number as it is a confirmation sign of the bulls regaining control. However, before we get too excited that the final bottom is in, this is a process. A 90% […]
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Date: March 17, 2025
Still Not About Tariffs – Zone For a Bottom – Not a Decline To Do Nothing
Stocks continue to correct on a compressed path to what I have been discussing. In hindsight, obviously, we know that this is the 10%+ decline over 7-9 weeks I forecast was coming in Q2 or Q3 and not the mid-single decline I saw for Q1. Nonetheless, it doesn’t change anything in my view nor forecast. If you are keeping score at home, the NASDAQ 100 is down 12% since its last high on February 19th while the S&P 500 has […]
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Date: March 14, 2025
Bulls Need Less Momentum As Stocks Correct Lower
The markets continue to be more challenging to maneuver. Friday was the third time and second Friday during the pullback where stocks sold off sharply and then rallied to close well. The previous two times, the bears came right back to work the next day to thwart the bulls. The bulls will absolutely need to break that behavior for any kind of low to form. Pre-market looks like another ugly morning. And I would speculate that Friday’s lowest point will […]
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Date: March 10, 2025
Tariffs, DOGE and The REAL Reason Why The Markets Are Cranky
Tariffs, DOGE and The REAL Reason Why The Markets Are Cranky On Wednesday we bought EWS, ITB and more FDN. We sold EIS, XLB and some FXI. On Thursday we sold PCY, EMB, some GDX and some XMMO.
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Date: March 7, 2025
