Post Rally Continues – Small Caps Poised For ATHs
The post-election, post-Fed rally continued on Friday. It is clear that the election released another round of animal spirits in the markets. While I definitely enjoyed seeing portfolios increase, I have been at this too long to believe this is one of those times to close your eyes and buy everything. And nor do I ever believe the markets are seeing a “new paradigm”. These are not political statements. It’s based on 35 years of experience in the markets. Someone […]
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Date: November 11, 2024
Digesting The Post-Election / Fed Moves
Election out of the way. Fed out of the way. Q3 earnings season mostly over. Not many catalysts for a while. And that’s just the way I like it. Markets need to calm down and digest. Investors’ emotions need to recover. It’s been a whirlwind. As expected the Fed cut interest rates on Thursday and Jay Powell said he would not resign if Trump asked him. Markets didn’t really seem to care. The Fed made a mistake by cutting 0.50% […]
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Date: November 8, 2024
Model Strikes Out – Major Victory – Markets Caught Off Guard – Don’t Buy Everything
Well, so much to cover, so bleary-eyed. I always stay up way too late waiting and then information seems to slow to a crawl. Early in the evening, I watched three independent betting lines and the stock market futures began to move significantly in Trump’s favor. It wasn’t even 9pm yet. That was a tell. Somehow, the markets are usually right. It’s not absolute, but it’s pretty good. Our election model was wrong for the first time since 1992. It’s […]
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Date: November 6, 2024
Markets Looking Bullish Post-Election
Super excited to join my friend, Tim Lammers, on FOX61’s morning show at 10:15am discussing our presidential election model, what the markets are pricing in and which groups will benefit each candidate’s victory. T minus one day until the election. I can’t tell you how happy I will be when it’s over. Goodbye TV ads. Adios SPAM texts and emails. This is probably naive, but I hope kindness and respect return. Last week began the strongest seasonal period of the […]
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Date: November 4, 2024
Election Model Tightens With Weak Employment & Market Selloff
T minus 4 days until the election. I hope to send out emails and/or videos over the weekend and then most days next week. After my last email about our election model I was amazed that people completely ignored my comments and sent me chirping, nasty emails. The model is 100% unemotional. It doesn’t care about policy, opinions, polls nor feelings. It certainly doesn’t care who I am voting for. It simply scores recent economic data along with three time […]
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Date: November 1, 2024
***Q3 Client Update***
A quick update on our presidential election model which has had a strong track record over the years. The model was last wrong in 1992. It has been dusted off and I am running every other day this week. Then I will run it every day into Tuesday. Kamala Harris scores the point for the economy. That’s unlikely to change with the few pieces of data coming out over the coming few days. The stock market times series is not […]
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Date: October 30, 2024
Markets Firm As Election Draws Closer – Some Model Inputs
Greetings from Dallas where I am attending my semi-annual industry conference, moderating a few panels and catching up with old friends and colleagues. A group of us had dinner last night and I got to spend lots of time with my friend and former partner, Dave Moenning who among the great guys I know in the industry. While the formal presentations are fantastic, there is nothing better than networking to learn how people run their business, their successes and failures. […]
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Date: October 28, 2024
Wanna Know Who Will Win The Election?
The election is 11 days away and I will likely be commenting on it in each blog until then. As you know, my thesis has always been that elections absolutely do not matter for the markets nor economy until we get to November. All year long, all this posturing and fear mongering has been absurd and annoying. These pundits with Harris and Trump portfolios. They know not of what they speak. 100 years of data suggest that’s it’s all a […]
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Date: October 25, 2024
Volatility Stubbornly High – Proven Wrong Quickly
By the slightest margin, stocks closed for the second day in a row, breaking a 30+ day streak. Does that really matter? I don’t think so. Seasonals are weak this week, but nothing powerful. It has been a real nothing burger this month which probably means something will come out of the blue. Retreading an old topic, the Volatility Index (VIX) is below. With stocks at new highs, the VIX should not even be a teenager, let alone stubbornly close […]
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Date: October 23, 2024
When Paid Actors Tell You The Market Can’t Go Down
The markets open the week with a range of all-time highs. Furthermore, lots of folks shared that the stock market hasn’t had back to back down days in more than 30 days. That is the epitome of strong momentum and buying every dip. Since the mini-crash on August 5th, there have been only two decent down days. I think that’s going to change this week. This rally has flown in the face of seasonal factors which argued for weakness in […]
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Date: October 21, 2024
