Sometimes Markets Are Annoyingly Frustrating
The stock market blasted off this week. While Monday was a sizable down day, it turned out to be a trap for the bears. OUCH! Tuesday through Thursday were very strong, triggering a number of longer-term thrusts. Thrusts? Picture a rocket taking off. The first 1000, 10,000 and 100,000 feet see the strongest acceleration. Then the power continues without less energy. With stocks rallying so strongly, the bears seem to have disappeared. The same pundits who turned negative near the […]
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Date: April 25, 2025
We’ve Seen This Show Before. Read data. Analyze data. React to data.
Anyone dizzy yet? Tariffs on. Tariffs off. Fire Jay Powell. Don’t fire Jay Powell. I am not even sure what day it is anymore. But in investing just like life, we play the hand we are dealt, not the hand we want. I see our aggressive models swinging heavily long to short to neutral to long and on and on. The news is the news, just like we saw with COVID in 2020 and, well, everything, in 2008. Markets are […]
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Date: April 23, 2025
Markets Cranky To Start New Week
I hope those who observe Easter and Passover had a good holiday. The markets return from the long weekend on the cranky side with pre-market indicating a 1%+ loss at the open. Last week, I wrote about a pullback coming and this certainly looks like it. Unless I am totally misreading the market, there should be another rally coming later this week or next. Stocks basically remain in the range from that wild up 10% day from two Wednesdays ago. […]
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Date: April 21, 2025
Looking At Other Similar Crashes As Stocks Target All-Time Highs In Less Than A Year
The stock market bounced as expected from both a time and price standpoint. A pullback is next. I do not believe stocks will breach or come close to the lowest levels we have seen in April, at least not yet. Ideally, I would like to see the S&P 500 get to at least 5550over the coming few weeks. My thesis remains that a wide, 15% trading range is likely in place for the next 4-8 weeks and the final bottom […]
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Date: April 16, 2025
Tariff Crash To Tariff Surge – 4 to 8 Weeks More Of High Volatility
A new video is up. Tariff Crash To Tariff Surge – 4 to 8 Weeks More Of High Volatility On Friday we bought SDS and EIS. We sold EPOL and some QLD.
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Date: April 14, 2025
“A” Significant Low Is In For Stocks – “THE” Bottom Likely 4-8 Weeks Off
When we left off on Wednesday morning which seemed like a year ago, I showed a number of charts that were supportive of the stock market finding “A” bottom earlier this week. I didn’t then and still question whether we’ve “THE” bottom. I doubt it unless the Fed comes in with the nuclear weapons like they did on April 6th 2020. Wednesday’s rally was one for the ages. The stock market rallied more in three hours than the average one […]
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Date: April 11, 2025
Volatility At Historic Highs – Comparing Other Crashes
There is so much to write about today, but I think I will table most of it and do another video this week. I want to start with the volatility which is at historic levels. Spikes like you see below in the chart of the VIX are almost always terminal, meaning the moves go straight up and die. I don’t want to say “never”, but I can’t find nor recall any period in history where the VIX spiked and remained […]
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Date: April 9, 2025
Market Correction Turned Into A Waterfall Invoking 2022 & 2020 – Zone For A Bottom Opens This Week
In last week’s video, I discussed how Thursday’s plunge didn’t look like the decline was complete. Rather, the market needed some more downside and time to attempt to forge a low again. In that thesis, I certainly wasn’t talking about nor expecting the complete rout that happened on Friday where 90% of the volume came in stocks that declined. After very constructive behavior leading up to April 2nd, the two-day, about to be three-day, drop has turned into an emotional, […]
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Date: April 7, 2025
Stock Market Bottom Could Be In As Tariffs Begin
Tariff day is here. Love it or hate it, we have another highly anticipated event after the close. My sentiments have been shared many times. I am firmly against tariffs. All of them. Not just what the U.S. is retaliating for. No one wins a trade war. There are just varying degrees of losers. I hate losing. I heard a Canadian politician on TV this morning saying how much he loved the American people. His beef was only with Donald […]
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Date: April 2, 2025
Here’s The Good News – Stocks Getting Close
Interesting stats to begin the new week. When the stock market decline more than 1% on the 4th Friday of the month the next 7 days are usually up significantly. On top of that, April begins tomorrow and we know that when April starts the month in a downtrend like today, the month averages +2.5%. That’s a powerful seasonal tailwind. Last Wednesday I wrote that I thought it was an opportune time for the bears to come out. I thought […]
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Date: March 31, 2025
