Rumors of the US Dollar’s Demise Have Been Much Exaggerated

The second segment I did on Yahoo Finance last Thursday was not a new one for long time readers. As many of you know, I turned very positive on the US Dollar right about the time Bear Sterns needed a bailout in March 2008. That was long before any QE (money printing) began.

Historically, the dollar spent most of its life oscillating between 80 and 120 on the US Dollar Index, an index containing a basket of currencies with the majority of the weighting against the Euro and Yen.

When the economy is strong and interest rates are typically in an uptrend, the index rises and vice versa. Usually, the US Dollar Index in anticipation of a weaker economy and lower rates and bottoms in anticipation of higher rates and a better economy. Remember, this is all relative against the rest of the world, but primarily against Europe and Japan. Additionally, in times of international crisis, the dollar is typically viewed as a safe haven.

For the past 6 years, the greenback has and continues to be one of the most hated investments, especially by the general public. They very wrongly assume that printing $5 trillion would devastate the dollar as the doomday’ers would have you believe. I can’t tell you how many times I have heard pundits talk about the “plunging dollar” or how Ben Bernanke’s money printing continues to punish it. The truth is, the US Dollar Index has never been lower than it was in March 2008.

Anyway, I didn’t mean for this post to be this long and go on and on. The segment I did last week on Yahoo Finance is below.

Why the Dollar Bears Have Been Wrong for the Past 5 Years

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