Separating the Election Nonsense from Reality

Here is the latest Street$marts:$marts20121015.pdf

Time for the Fed & ECB to Put Up or Shut Up

Here is the piece I did last Friday after the putrid jobs report.  While the headline number may have indicated an increase of almost 100,000 net new jobs, the underlying data was awful.  Additionally, while the unemployment rate may have fallen to 8.1% from 8.3%, it was primarily due to people leaving the workforce than people being hired.

We already know that Bernanke & Co.  are close to another round of money printing (QE) and this will likely push them into QE3 with a combination of mortgage back security and treasury bond purchases.

FOX Business TODAY at 1pm

I am going to be on FOX Business’ Markets Now today at 1pm est discussing the markets’ reaction to the weak employment data along with our forecast for the Dow to year-end. 

Stocks lost roughly 1% on Friday, but you would think the market collapsed from the media’s portrayal of the day.  Listening to Mitt Romney, it sounds like we lost jobs and are heading into the abyss.  President Obama on the other hand gave a campaign speech in Ohio where it took him 11 minutes to even mention jobs and then he only spoke about how well the administration has done in creating jobs.  I think most of know that the truth is somewhere in the middle.

There are four more employment reports until the election and I think they will all fall in the modest category, somewhere between 10,000 and 200,000 jobs created each month.  While that is jobs growth, it is tepid at best and doesn’t keep pace with population growth.  Looking over the history of post financial crisis recoveries, all of this falls within the realm of normalcy.  As I have mentioned before, it is usually after the next recession where we make significant progress on the employment front. 

The next Street$marts should be out by Wednesday.