The Times They are a Changin’… BEWARE

The latest Street$marts has been posted.$marts20130623.pdf

Heading to Fox Business shortly. Should be an “interesting” discussion given the volatility and fear in the martkets.

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Who Turned the Lights Out?

After a nice opening by the bulls on Wednesday, the bears came out en mass to print a fairly ugly day across the board except for gold and the stocks. It looks like stocks are heading back to revisit the lows from last week which should happen in the next few days.

The stock market is now as oversold as it has been at any time since the November bottom. Failure to respond positively over the coming week would be the first real change in character for this market since last year and probably turn the trend from up to neutral at best.

Market internals have gone from overwhelmingly solid to pathetic and that usually means the next rally is one to be sold in to. Emerging markets have been obliterated with the sector now down double digits on the year which we have certainly felt in our own emerging markets strategy.

Volatility is back and the next few sessions are going to be mighty interesting!

I will be working on Street$marts shortly with the comparison to 1987 I have spoken about before.

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All Eyes and Ears on the Global Central Banks

Here is the link from Friday’s segment: 

Nothing has changed regarding the outlook for stocks.  I think we are in a generally benign period for equities that has been following the typical presidential election year pattern of a Q1 rally, a springtime low and summer rally to a peak.  If that continues to hold true, we should see another good bottom in September or October and then rally into year-end.  I am sure the market will throw some doubt into that along the way!

Over the coming month or so, we should hear from the Chinese that they are going to stimulate their economy a bit more.  The Fed has their annual retreat in Jackson Hole in two weeks followed by a very important meeting on September 12 and 13 where more stimulus should be announced.  September 12 is also the date when the German courts will rule on the constitutionality of using funds for bailouts.  And of course, the markets are waiting on the ECB to unveil another round of bond buying to help Spain.

So there’s lots on the calendar before we even get to the November elections!

After the stock market declines and potentially world ending news during the summers of 2011, 2010, 2008, 2007 and 2006, it’s a welcome change that this summer has been without significant volatility.  As we head into September, that should change a bit, but nothing extreme. 


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