It’s All About Big Ben

June 19, 2013 By Leave a Comment

The stock market rally that began last Thursday continued into the “all important” Fed meeting on Wednesday. It seems like every Fed announcement is now hailed as the most important one ever and this one is certainly no exception. To keep everyone on their toes, Bernanke & Company changed the announcement time to 2:00pm with the press conference beginning at 2:30pm.

There has been a strong tendency for the market to close higher almost 70% of the time on announcement day since the bull market began. With so much focus on this meeting, I fully expect some wide swings post 2:00pm with the possibility for several direction changes leading up to the “real” move into the close.

It’s going to get really interesting with all time highs in striking distance but significant downside consequences if the rally fails first.

Stay tuned…

Filed Under: Blog Tagged With: , , ,

Who Turned the Lights Out?

June 14, 2013 By Leave a Comment

After a nice opening by the bulls on Wednesday, the bears came out en mass to print a fairly ugly day across the board except for gold and the stocks. It looks like stocks are heading back to revisit the lows from last week which should happen in the next few days.

The stock market is now as oversold as it has been at any time since the November bottom. Failure to respond positively over the coming week would be the first real change in character for this market since last year and probably turn the trend from up to neutral at best.

Market internals have gone from overwhelmingly solid to pathetic and that usually means the next rally is one to be sold in to. Emerging markets have been obliterated with the sector now down double digits on the year which we have certainly felt in our own emerging markets strategy.

Volatility is back and the next few sessions are going to be mighty interesting!

I will be working on Street$marts shortly with the comparison to 1987 I have spoken about before.

Filed Under: Blog, Investment Tips Tagged With: , , , , , ,

Where Did the Bulls go?

June 12, 2013 By Leave a Comment

I did not like the action today to begin the new week. After Thursday and Friday, the bulls needed to hold serve and not let the bears see any weakness. Monday and Tuesday saw the bears take over and that does not bode well in the short-term, even though the stock market is oversold. More caution is warranted.

Filed Under: Blog, Investment Tips Tagged With: , , ,

Bears in Full Attack Mode

June 7, 2013 By Leave a Comment

Just one week ago, all the talk was about Dow 16,000 and even higher. They said the year was just like 1995. HA! Years like 1995 come along once every investment cycle, almost like we saw in 2003. The major indices were solidly red today for the second time in four sessions. Contrary to popular belief, trees don’t grow to the sky and neither do stocks! So far, this is an orderly and healthy pullback that should max out at the 10% level. Buying the dips remains the strategy to use until proven otherwise. I do NOT believe the bull market is  over yet!

Filed Under: Blog, Investment Tips Tagged With: , , ,

Why Bernanke Can’t Be Fully Transparent

May 30, 2013 By Leave a Comment

After being interviewed by Melissa Francis for so many years both at Fox Business and CNBC, it was great to finally meet her in person on set. She definitely does not lob softball questions! Here is the segment from the other day.

http://video.foxbusiness.com/v/2404884981001/why-bernanke-cant-be-fully-transparent/ 

Action in the stock market on Thursday and Friday was positive enough to indicate at least one more run to all time highs sooner than later. It was be interesting to what leads and lags if that rally materializes.

 

Filed Under: Blog, Investment Tips Tagged With: , , , , ,

Big Ben Pours Cold Water on Bulls

May 24, 2013 By Leave a Comment

The stock market saw a very dramatic and emotional reversal today as fresh all time highs were seen in the morning followed by a vicious selling wave from the highs until 3:30. The hardest hit sectors all focused on dividends that would become less attractive if interest rates rose. Utilities, telecom, REITs and financials. Pundits were quick to compare today’s action to that seen at THE peak in 2007 and 2000, but I believe that is misplaced. While the price behavior may look similar for this one day, little else resembles 2007 and 2000.

At bull peaks like 2007 and 2000, we typically see the New York Stock Exchange Advance/Decline line diverge with price along with high yield bonds. Neither was seen. The same can be said of the Dow Jones Industrials and Transports. Additionally, we have almost no meaningful sector leadership warnings. I suppose there is a first for everything, but this would set a precedent for bull market peaks and I am not ready to drink that Kool-Aid yet although stocks could certainly fall 3-6% very easily here.

Filed Under: Blog, Investment Tips Tagged With: , , , , ,

Fox Business and Yahoo Finance

May 22, 2013 By Leave a Comment

I head to New York in the morning (Thursday) to spend some time with my friends at Yahoo Finance. As usual, you can expect another controversial segment or two from my interview with Jeff Mackey. Yahoo Finance was the first media outlet I began to warn about Apple’s stock price heading for a 50%+ decline and that long-term forecast remains the same. However, something may be changing over the short-term…

Besides visiting Yahoo and meeting with clients, I am also scheduled to be on set with the folks at Fox Business at 1:30pm. Usually, I do my interviews from a studio in CT, but this is the first time I will be live in studio and I am really looking forward to it!

Filed Under: Blog Tagged With: , , , ,

Stocks Surge Higher With Authority

May 16, 2013 By Leave a Comment

All of the major stock market indices saw more all time highs but this time it looked like a serious bull rush with the market opening flatish and pushing higher and higher all day. Some of the “old” defensive leaders came back to life like healthcare, consumer staples and utilities. This market is beginning to feel like a melt up which usually sees even more vertical gains, but which also ends in ruins. In my 2013 forecast, I called for a front loaded year with the gains early and I am not wavering from that. 1987 has been stuck in my mind since late last year and this is how it felt back then.

Filed Under: Blog, Investment Tips Tagged With: , , , ,

With Trepidation, Onwards and Upwards

May 8, 2013 By Leave a Comment

Here is the segment from this morning’s (May 8) Squawk Box with a really good discussion on the stock market, economy, employment numbers and the Fed. http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000166972&play=1

Many of the small cracks I saw in the markets a month ago have repaired themselves with sideways action instead an outright correction. The canaries of liquidity, high yield bonds, small cap stocks and the New York Stock Exchange advance/decline line are all seeing all time highs. The Dow Jones Transportation Index has played catch up with the Dow Jones Industrials and both are now in gear to the upside at all time highs. We have seen some positive sector rotation since last Friday that has fueled this recent rally. And even gold is popping higher.

Filed Under: Blog, Investment Tips Tagged With: , , , ,

Squawk Box at 6:30am

May 7, 2013 By Leave a Comment

I am going to be on CNBC’s Squawk Box at 6:30am on Wednesday discussing the market’s recent surge to new highs along with some areas of concern and which sectors may be poised for more gains. And no, I do not believe the bear market in Apple is over. It recently hit my second downside target at $400 and is bouncing as it should. More weakness should await the one time darling on it way to $300.

Filed Under: Blog Tagged With: , , , , ,
« Older Posts