Bulls Running Like Pamplona

This is looking more and more the running of the bulls in Pamplona. They just stampede anyone and everyone in their way. After the two strongly positive seasonal trends ended after the first week of October, there was sufficient evidence that stocks were due for a pause to refresh or modest, single digit pullback. That’s what I was looking for. Nothing big. Nothing significant. Nothing really actionable. Just your garden variety reset.

Stocks came out of the gate to the upside on Friday after what I kiddingly referred to as a one day bear market on Thursday. All of the major stock market indices are at or essentially at all-time highs. Bears can’t argue with that. My four key sectors are also acting very well with semis and banks at new relative highs with transports and discretionary catching up. In recent weeks, I wrote about the poor behavior by the banks, but that is changing today.

High yields, while not leading and looking a little lifeless, are still just a day or two from all-time highs. The NYSE A/D Line is also just a whisker from new highs. On the other hand, defensive sectors, like utilities, telecom and staples are the worst sector performers. For the first time since Q1, bond yields look they could break out to the upside and see the 10-year note head above 2.6%. That would be a huge tailwind for banks and signal that the economy may be heating up.

Stocks should end the week on a high note. Interesting how GE reported awful earnings yet again and the stock opened sharply lower by more than 5%. As I type this, it’s trying mightily to turn green on massive volume. If that 4%+ dividend is safe…

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Banks & Transports Still Tired. Modest Pullback Here.

Last Friday, I discussed what appeared to be tired behavior in the banks as they were selling off on good earnings news after rallying sharply into earnings season. Citigroup and JP Morgan were the examples. This morning, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley beat earnings expectations, yet reaction has been muted with the former opening sharply higher and then selling off while the latter is hanging tight. I would not be surprised to see Morgan Stanley buck the trend in the short-term and finish better than its peers have.

Another one of my key sectors, transports, is following through to the downside after seeing its own “key reversal” last week, another sign of a tired sector. While I am not looking for a substantial decline in either sector, I do believe the upside is now capped and the best case is some sideways activity for a few weeks.

On the stock market index side, I continue to be of the opinion that an October pullback remains in the cards as I have discussed for the past few weeks. Nothing big or traumatic. Just a modest, single digit bout of weakness. On Monday with new highs in the Dow and S&P 500, there were more stocks declining than advancing on the NYSE. That comes off an all-time on Friday in the NYSE A/D Line. While one day does not amount to much, it does support my over theme of a slightly tired market.

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Banks Selling the News. Transport Close By

Earnings season is now in full swing which means that every morning. pre-market, you will find a slew of companies reporting as well as offering guidance or forecasts about the future. That creates a much higher level of single stock and sometimes single sector overnight risk. Right now, the major banks are reporting, after experiencing a near vertical ascent into Q3 quarter end.

The last time I wrote a specific article about the banking sector, it had just touched a three-month low and I offered a very binary outcome. Either it was going to rally strongly to new highs or collapse. Unfortunately and uncharacteristically for me, I didn’t have strong conviction which would be the ultimate outcome.

As you can see above, banks followed the super bullish scenario (line in green) almost perfectly and scored new highs right before earnings season began. On the surface, the average investor would probably become very excited about this development. However, with more than a 10% run before earnings season, I argue that good earnings are expected and already priced into the sector. In other words, investors bought the rumor of good earnings and selling the news. As such, banks would need to really blow out earnings on the upside to keep momentum going which I do not think is likely.

Both JP Morgan and Citigroup reported earnings on Thursday morning. While they both beat expectations by 11 and 10 cents respectively, both stocks closed lower in what technical analysts sometimes refer to as a key reversal day, where a new high is seen and they immediately rejected. Then the close is lower than the previous day’s low. It looks like a long, red stick as you can see below for Citigroup and it has negative implications.

I bring up the banks and reactions to earnings as it shows a tired banking sector. Should banks see a soft patch, that would likely translate into a cessation of the overall stock market’s rally, if not outright, short-term, modest pullback and I have discussing for October. Again, I do not see anything meaningful or long lasting on the downside, just a short-term bout of mild weakness.

Finally, although semis continue to make new high after new high, the transports are seeing somewhat of a reversal as I type this, scoring a fresh high this morning and weakening all day. At the same time, treasury bonds have been quietly rallying along with the defensive sectors, showing that “risk off” is now showing at least a little merit.

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3 Reasons Stocks Will Peak Right Now

Good Monday Morning! Huge weekend if you are a sports fan although the decision making of my Yankees’ and Cowboys’ manager and coach likely just ended their seasons. At that level, the margin for blunders is razor thin and both Girardi (4 stupid decisions in 40 min) and Garrett (one giant brain freeze) cost their teams. While I have never been in their shoes, it’s the same thing I face each and every market day. Over the past 29 years, I have probably made every bad decision one can make, but hopefully, I learn from those as I move forward.

Stocks begin the week with all five major stock market indices at fresh new highs along with high yield bonds and the NYSE A/D Line. So are the banks, semis and transports among key sectors. As I have said over and over and over again since 2010, bullĀ  markets do not end with this type of behavior. Sorry to all of the bull markets haters and disavowers; you have been wrong, are wrong and will be wrong until the evidence changes. And when they are finally right, I am sure they will crow about how they knew it all along. Reality over rhetoric.

With all that said, the very short-term has an opportunity to change right here and now. If there is going to be the mild, modest pullback in October which I have written about lately, stocks should peak this week for three reasons.

1 – September ended at its highest close of the month for the S&P 500. That leads to another week of strength, roughly 1%, and then a give back of more than 1%.

2 – When October begins the month in an uptrend, the first five days tends to be higher. However, the next five and the five days after that and the final five days of the month all show mildly negative returns of roughly -0.25% each period.

3 – Stocks rallied hard into the beginning of Q3 earnings season, using up a lot of fuel. That usually means earnings are priced for perfection and rarely exceed expectations.

BONUS – The Economist and Barrons have run very bullish headlines this month about how the global markets and economies are hitting on all cylinders. Additionally, the term “melt up” is all over the place on blogs and Twitter. While this is nowhere even close to the true irrational exuberance of 1999 and early 2000, it does give bulls a little cause for short-term concern.

Finally, I am not going to rehash the piece I wrote about the negativity of Octobers in years ending in “7”, but you can reread it HERE.

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Three Big Short-Term Changes Today

Looking at the economic news of the day, jobs created in September actually declined for the first time since 2011. On the surface, that would be shockingly disappointing and brings in calls for recession. However, all of the drop from the expected 100,000 created will be attributed to the hurricanes. The unemployment rate surprisingly fell to 4.2% from the expected 4.4%. Until the economies in Texas and Florida get back to somewhat normal behavior, job numbers are going to be volatile and more difficult to assess.

Turning to the markets, as I wrote about earlier this week, all of the major stock market indices saw new highs this week. This was expected as we have strong seasonality from October beginning the month in an uptrend as well as September ending the month at its highest close. Both of those tailwinds end TODAY with the October seasonal trends turning negative for the next three weeks. Additionally, stocks have rallied very hard into the beginning of earnings season which is now. Put another way, stocks have exhausted a lot of energy as companies begin to report Q3 earnings. It’s going to be difficult to maintain the rate of ascent, not to mention that companies better not disappoint.

While all of this may sound negative, I want to be crystal clear that I absolutely do not believe the bull market ended or is close to ending. I only have some very short-term concerns which may translate into a modest low to mid single digit pullback in stocks. Nothing to worry about over the intermediate or long-term. Semis, banks and transports all made new highs and discretionary has ceased lagging significantly. Industrials, materials and all at or near new highs. Energy is rallying sharply. All this as defensive sectors like REITs, staples and utilities are lagging. The recipe for higher prices remains firmly intact into year-end and into 2018.

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Beware of October in Years Ending in “7”

While I often write about seasonality, in the grand scheme of things, it’s really only a slight head or tailwind. For those who do not know what seasonality is, it is using a period of time in history to see what trends have occurred the majority of the time. For instance, Sell in May and Go Away, is a seasonal trend for stocks to be weaker from May through October and stronger the rest of the year. The day before an exchange holiday is typically a seasonally strong day. Until 2015, years ending in 5, but especially every other decade (2015, 1995, 1975, 1955) produced outsized large returns.
The stock market is about to enter a seasonally volatile period. This one only occurs once per decade. It’s basically the month of October in years ending in “7”, but it’s not that cut and dried, exactly. Let’s take a look below and see if today’s price action looks similar to the past.
2007 was the last bull market peak. Stocks rallied hard into the October high but the underpinnings looked awful. Participation was pathetic and leadership was very weak. We saw a very unusual Q4 decline unfold starting in October. Whereas Octobers have been called the bear market killer, in 2007, October killed the bull.

1997 is next and stocks were making fresh all-time highs right into the beginning of October. Then the emerging markets currency crisis hit and stocks saw the single largest one day point decline in history. From there, the bull market reasserted itself and new highs were quickly seen. This does have similarities to today.
1987 is below and I don’t have to tell anyone what happened in October of that year! Stocks had already peaked in August, followed by a 10% correction into September. After a feeble bounce into early October, the bottom literally fell out. Calls of a new Great Depression were everywhere after the single largest one day percentage decline in history.
1977 is next. The one year bear market was getting long in the tooth. October saw a downside acceleration straight to the ultimate bottom. A bear market killer.
Here is 1967 and you can see that stocks peaked in early October and promptly lost more than 10%. This also has similarities to today.
Finally, 1957 is below and like 1977, stocks were already in decline. They accelerated lower in October to the bottom later that month. Another bear market killer.
Adding 1947, 1937, 1927, 1917 and 1907 wouldn’t change any of the results. ’47 was somewhat muted. ’37 saw the continuation and acceleration of the decline to a bottom. ’27 had a modest decline in an ongoing bull market. Both ’17 and ’07 looked very similar, seeing the continuation and acceleration of ongoing declines.
Octobers in years ending in 7 have had unique behavioral patterns to the downside. It seems like markets that are already in decline see the worst selling in October while stronger markets, like today, see more muted declines. It’s something we definitely need to be aware of with North Korea percolating.

Signs Point Higher this Week

After a solid end to September and Q3, stocks open the new day, week, month and quarter flirting with all-time highs. Of the major indices, only the NASDAQ 100 isn’t there, but I expect to see that achievement this week. When I think of October, Reggie Jackson’s three home run game in 1977 comes to mind along with Halloween, fall foliage and stock market crashes. As I already wrote about, while October is known for huge market swings, 2017 is on the atypical side with near record low volatility.

I updated my research regarding October and you can read about it HERE. Additionally, the always interesting Rob Hanna from Quantifiable Edges offered that when the S&P 500 closes the month at its highest close, the next 5 trading days are seasonally very strong with 21 wins and 7 losses since 1995. The average trade earned a stout 1%. This trend jibes very well with what I discovered about the first 5 days of October in an uptrend. I will be looking for a short-term peak next week.

On the sector side, strong leadership continues to support buying any dip with semis, transports and banks all stepping up big time. Discretionary is fine, but I am beginning to see the early stages of intermediate-term underperformance. High yield bonds are behaving well and there is just no evidence that the 8+ year bull market is ending. Sorry bears…

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Stocks on Solid Footing Heading into Q4

Since late July, my overall theme has been one of pause to refresh with a mild pullback as the five major stock market indices were certainly not all in gear to the upside. Two months later, with the S&P 400 and Russell 2000 recently surging, they are all getting closer together. That behavior comes at the expense of the NASDAQ 100 peaking earlier this month and moving sideways for the others to catch up. I fully expect November and December to see all five major indices scoring all-time highs at the same time although I am still not ready to declare that stocks are ready to blast off to the upside.

I have written much about the semis and banks as a tale of two key sectors moving in opposite directions. While semis broke out to new highs, banks finally got off the rear end and surged 10%, close to new highs, a very positive sign. Transports behaved similarly, but even stronger. Discretionary, leaders in most years since the bear market low in 2009, look like they are peaking, at least over the intermediate-term which could spell some trouble for the consumer. Somewhat quietly as I have written about before, energy has become the single strongest sector after some horrific declines.

All in all, stocks are closing out the quarter on fairly solid footing and poised for higher highs into year-end.

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Trump, Merkel & Tech

Stocks begin the week with a mixed bag of news. President Trump made for a rough weekend with his comments regarding the NFL and player protests as well as saber rattling with North Korea. In Europe, Angela Merkel’s party won the election for the fourth time and she is the presumptive Chancellor yet again. For two years, I have been calling the German election the single biggest geopolitical event since the Maastricht Treaty was signed in 1999, officially creating the Euro currency.

Whether Merkel won or not wasn’t the real story. A loss would have sent markets into a tailspin and hastened a frightful collapse of the Euro currency and Eurozone. A victory doesn’t change the final outcome which will be ugly and awful; it just prolongs it with death by 1000 paper cuts. The Euro currency remains doomed as does the Eurozone. It’s just going to take longer to get there. While you may breathe a sigh of relief, it also means that it’s going to take a lot longer to have a fertile ground in Europe for real, sustainable economic growth to compete with the U.S. and Asia.

Turning to our markets, technology has been stutter stepping and finally looks to be falling under its own weight. While Apple is looking more and more oversold and ready for a bounce, Facebook, Amazon and Netflix have a ways to go. Markets are also in a seasonally weak period for another month with the teeth of that negativity just around the corner.

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Semis Breaking Out But Some Concern Out There

Stocks begin the new week on decent footing yet I remain of the belief that strength is a better selling opportunity than a buying one for now. While the underpinnings are not suggestive of recession, bear market nor 10%+ stock market correction, I continue to see evidence that a mid single digit pullback may be in the cards over the next 6 weeks. It’s also the single weakest of the year based on history. This one single week performs more poorly than any other according to data miner Rob Hanna of Quantifiable Edges, always a great read.

From a price standpoint, the Dow and Russell 2000 are the leading indices, but the others are not far behind. I do expect every major index to see new highs by year-end. The tech-laden NASDAQ 100 which is totally dominated by the FAANG (Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix and Google) stocks had been the market’s big leader, but ceded way this quarter. On the right side of the chart, you can see the index trading between those light blue lines. In other words, it’s becoming coiled up for a big move. At this point, the direction of that move is not clear although more than 50% of the time, it’s in the same direction as the previous trend.

I have written much about the semis lately and how they have shouldered the leadership burden all quarter. Today, the group has broken out to new highs where the grouping of sell orders is more difficult. It will be very, very important to watch how this sector performs over the coming week. Giving much back in here will not bode well for stocks, especially tech.

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