Blue Skies

Another day, more blue skies for the major stock market indices. The pain for the bears has to be strong and growing, but I have yet to see evidence that they are throwing in the towel en mass. And price action has done absolutely wrong to suggest anything more than a trading pullback.

As I mentioned the other day, I think it pays to be a little more vigilant here, not that I think we are going to see a full fledged correction or the need to make outright sales to raise cash. Sentiment has grown a little complacent and stocks are at all-time highs, sometimes an ingredient for a quick pullback. However, the plan remains the same. Until proven otherwise, pullbacks are buying opportunities.

The longer the market can go without giving up significant gains, the more likely the resolution will be sharply higher. As a bull, it would be great to see some sideways action for a week or so and then another blast higher to really squeeze the bears. Ultimately, I still believe that stocks will experience a major blow off to the upside before the bull market ends, however, it doesn’t look like that’s right here.

Sector leadership continues to rotate in an intermediate-term positive fashion with REITs, utilities and staples all ceding to consumer discretionary, semis, biotech.

Gearing up to visit Jeff Macke and the good folks at Yahoo Finance tomorrow and then see my old friend Melissa Francis at Fox Business on her show MONEY.

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The Most Hated Bull Market Continues

Yesterday, I spent a jam packed, fun filled day in New York City with client meetings and media interviews. Although I don’t enjoy the commute in and out of the city, I do enjoy the hustle and bustle as long as the weather is good since I like to walk as much as I can. I absolutely hate taking dirty, smelly cabs that take forever to get around, but I will hop on the subway when I have to go downtown.

I began my day with the good folks at Yahoo Finance creating three controversial segments. Jeff Macke, my favorite regular host who loves to disagree, ride me and try to get me out of comfort zone was on vacation so Milanee Kapadia filled in and did a masterful job. I really enjoyed chatting with her. She has a way about her interviews that is unique in today’s fast paced environment.

The first segment is below and it’s certainly not new to my readers who know I have and continue to believe that this is the most hated and disavowed bull market of the modern investing era.

“Hated” Bull Market

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Bulls Step Up… Kinda Sorta

What a great day I had in New York with my friends at Yahoo Finance and Fox Business. In all, there should be five segments posted over the coming week. I began the day at Yahoo with Jeff Macke doing a piece called The Rally Has Begun and Here’s How to Play it. Click on the link and let me know what you think. This was the “calmest” of the three segments!

Changing gears, here are some comments from recent action that dovetails nicely with the Yahoo piece.

A few days ago, I discussed how the stock market was oversold in the short-term and due for a bounce, but that a better intermediate-term low was probably near here yet. With a wicked reversal on Tuesday and follow through on Wednesday, the bulls drew a line in the sand and stepped up. This action was important in preventing prices from snowballing lower. Stock market behavior around tax day hasn’t been that kind to the bulls historically, so it was good to see the tide stemmed.

Several things continue to concern me looking out beyond a few days or weeks. We still have not seen the fear index (VIX) even pop above 20, let alone show real despair. Over the past year and change with almostĀ  no downside, the VIX spiked north of 21 at bottoms. Treasury bonds continue to make new highs for 2014 and even closed slightly higher today when they should have been down 1%. Whether it’s looming trouble in the Ukraine or a slowing economy, it’s not a positive for stocks.

Finally, sector leadership has viciously rotated and the new leaders are indicative of the final stage of a bull market. Energy, REITs, staples and utilities continue to push higher.

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