Obama Victory, Market Sell Off

Congratulations to President Barack Obama and all of the politicians who were elected by the American people last night. In the end, although my candidate did not win, Democracy was and is always the big winner. As you know, I hardly ever use the word “hope” when discussing investing, but in this case, I do hope we somehow see congress and the president at least genuinely attempt to work together on a bipartisan basis. I don’t know a single person who wants four more years like the last two in DC.

I am going to be on FOX Business’ Markets Now at 1:30pm est today discussing the election results and its impact on the stock market and economy.

In yesterday’s Street$marts, (http://www.investfortomorrow.com/newsletter/CurrentStreet$marts20121106.pdf) I made the case that an Obama victory would see market upside and a Romney victory would see weakness. And that whatever the move was, it should continue into next week. So what’s going on today and why the sea of red in the stock market and the Dow now under 13,000?

Stocks traded higher on Monday and Tuesday. Some say it was Romney, while others say it was Obama. To me, it’s irrelevant. You can see that last night from 5pm to 10pm, the S&P 500 futures (an indicator of the overall stock market) traded lower as the results were announced. After Obama achieved 270 electoral votes for reelection, the S&P 500 futures turned around and headed higher until almost 6am. So when I woke up and saw the green, I thought the market would open to the upside.

That was until the European Central Bank’s Mario Draghi made negative comments about Germany’s economy weakening. From there, the futures fell sharply straight to the U.S. open at 9:30am and have continued lower ever since. Was Obama’s reelection the cause of today’s carnage or was it the ECB? In the grand scheme, it doesn’t really matter, but given the weakness in the financials and materials and relative strength in consumer discretionary stocks, it certainly looks like Europe is the bigger driver than the election.

stock market reaction to election

I would look for the weakness in stocks, on balance, to continue into next week before another attempt at a meaningful bottom begins for a year-end rally.

German Courts and Apple

Markets breathed a collective sigh of relief after the German courts ruled “favorably”, allowing the European bailouts to continue.  Apple unveiled its latest iPhone as the stock sits near all time highs.  Both events did not inspire the markets to do much other than digest as they awaited the Fed’s 12:30pm announcement on Thursday. 

By the end of the week, the markets will have digested the ECB’s latest pledge to buy European debt in  a HUGE way, Apple’s new phone, the German court ruling and the Fed’s latest plan for more money printing.  Now that’s a month’s worth of news in one week!

As I wrote about in last week’s Street$marts, http://www.investfortomorrow.com/newsletter/CurrentStreet$marts20120905.pdf, the market was following the more bullish of the two bullish scenarios I spelled out.  At this point, it may get really interesting with all time highs in the Dow just under 1000 points away! 

In the next issue of Street$marts due out next week, I will review the various canaries in the coal mine and see how they are behaving.

Nothing New from the ECB

After Ben Bernanke gave the market little to cheer for on Wednesday, his European counterpart, Mario Draghi, and the ECB left interest rates alone and disappointed investors who were hoping for a follow up from his bold statement last week.  Draghi did indicate that massive bond purchases would resume again, but that was more than expected.  Draghi better deliver quickly or his credibility will certainly suffer.  Could he have put his foot in his mouth without speaking with the Germans first?

Friday at 8:30am brings the monthly employment report and the market has reacted negatively for most of the past year.  What’s interesting right now is that while the market reacted negatively to the Fed’s and ECB’s lack of action on Wednesday and Thursday, the net result could have been much worse with stocks closing right in the middle of the range today.

I have never been a big fan of betting on the outcome of an economic number and how the market will react, but IF the losing streak on employment Fridays was going to be broken, the stars are lined up to do it.

Europe’s Debt Problems are Here for Many More Years

In my bi-weekly interview with my friends from ET NOW in India, I continue to share my long-term view that Europe’s debt problems are not going away anytime soon.  Although that may seem bad on the surface, markets have a way of discounting known and anticipated news into current prices.

Remember 2008?  Who could forget it?!?!

The stock market turned down long before the economy and news.  And right at THE bottom in March 2009, the news was about as bad as the modern investing generation has ever seen.  For now, Europe’s problems are known and somewhat expected.  Any market can pullback 4-8% at any time, but a complete global, systemic meltdown should not be in the cards here.

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/opinion/interviews/european-debt-woes-will-haunt-us-for-years-paul-schatz-heritage-capital/articleshow/12713493.cms

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xmIbPdp5oEU

In a chat with ET Now, Paul Schatz, President, Heritage Capital LLC, talks about the factors affecting global markets and the Eurozone crisis. Excerpts:

ET Now: What do you want to start with, US economic data, Goldman Sachs earnings or the kind of indications we have got from Citigroup?

Paul Schatz: Going into the earnings season, analysts kept ratcheting down and ratcheting down expectations. So the bar was set so low coming into Q1 earnings, that you have to imagine most companies could exceed the bar pretty easily.

But as we have always learned in the market, it is not what the news is, it’s how the stocks and the companies in the market react to the news. So clearly after the bell today, after a great day for the bulls on Wall Street, Intel and IBM on a natural high.

ET Now: The Spanish bond yield fell and it has been a successful auction at that. Are concerns about what may happen to Spain now receded?

Paul Schatz: No, I think this is almost a daily soap opera. One day we are worried about yields going 6-7% higher, the next day the auction goes well. This news has been with us for more than a year and once we get by Spain, if we get by Spain, it will move to Italy or it will move to France, where we get the French elections.

So these kinds of European sovereign debt woes are going to be with us not just for days, weeks and months but we have got years to deal with this.