2008 Price Analog Put to Bed

In the past few issues, I discussed a widely followed price analog to 2008. Countless times, I have pounded the table that 2016 is ABSOLUTELY NOT 2008. Price was just following that path, but I expected the analog to break down much sooner than later. Over the past few weeks, it certainly has as you can see below. The January decline in 2016 mirrored that of 2008, almost to the day, as did the rally out of the January low. That’s where it ended. The S&P 500 saw new marginal new lows in 2016 only a few weeks after the the first low, but now is seeing its highest level since early January.


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2016 Continues to Look Like 2008

Several weeks ago when I was ranting how 2016 looks nothing like 2008, 2016 not a 2008 Redux and later The One Comp to 2008 that Does Hold Water I compared the January 2008 period to that of 2016. It’s a comp that continues to make the rounds so here it is updated, yet again.

2016 2008

If this comp continues to work, which they seldom do to fruition, here’s what’s coming next.

2009

Remember, the January 2008 decline was 20% all in and 2016 was roughly half that if you are looking to forecast the magnitude of the current rally.

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