Archives for November 2019

The Neutral Theme Continues

Greetings from Dallas where I am attending NAAIM’s annual Outlook conference with the real thought leaders in the industry. Although I have been involved with NAAIM for almost 30 years, I still get excited and look forward to seeing old friends, meeting new ones and hearing from and participating with true cutting edge thinkers who aren’t beholden to Wall Street’s agenda.

So, here we are. Although my intermediate and long-term bullish outlook remains unchanged and emboldened, I remain neutral over the very short-term as I first mentioned last week when I turned in real time, right here. Where do I think the major stock market indices can pull back to? As I discussed last week HERE, I am not looking for anything significant on the downside, maybe a few percent here or there. And perhaps the bulls can just limit the downside to some sideways activity within a few percent band for a period of time.

While I am still very positive on semiconductors, banks and transports, other sectors are percolating and starting to lead equally as good. Communication services being among them. Don’t underestimate the importance of this development for the continuation of the rally. On the flip side, I have been bullish on the defensive sectors like utilities , staples and REITs and they seem to have peaked for now. Reducing those positions into strength seems like the correct strategy for the time being.

I am going to cut it off here so I can hear Doug Ramsey from the Leuthold Group offer his long-term bearish case, something I don’t agree with, but I am certainly open to other opinions. If nothing else, it helps me to solidify my own position or find holes in it.

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Pause to Refresh or Mild Pullback Underway

Earlier this week, I turned neutral for the short-term in the stock market. That’s all it is. Neutral when I look out a few days to a few weeks. I am not calling for any decline of significance and we may not even see a noticeable pullback. Stocks could go sideways to work off what I see as investors becoming a little too giddy or they could mildly pull back. My work doesn’t support much more than that. Of course, as always, I could be dead wrong and stocks soar from here. I don’t see that happening just yet.

When looking for logical (when it the market ever logical?) areas for a pullback, I direct you to the horizontal blue lines on the Dow, S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 below. If we get some mild weakness, I am just looking at what probably too many other people are looking at.

Finally for today, the Dow Transports are getting a lot of attention because after more than a year of not confirming the positive action in the Dow Industrials, they are both trying to score fresh, all-time highs. While yesterday’s assault attempt was thwarted by the bears, I think the transports are close to breaking out and soaring further into January. More on this next week.

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Dow Joins Party. Stocks a Bit Tired

Greetings from 36,000 feet on some bumpy air, which is the norm when I fly. On Monday, the Dow Industrials joined the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 in fresh, all-time high territory. That’s now three of the five major stock market indices which have accommodated my bullish forecast. The last two, S&P 400 and Russell 2000 still have a ways to go, but I am still very optimistic that they will join their cousins later this quarter or by early 2020. Both lagging indices are behaving constructively with solid foundations to launch higher. Here are the midcaps below.

With all that said and the endless patting myself on the back for being so bullish, I do not believe adding new money nor getting more aggressive is the right play here. I think there is a decent chance that stocks are peaking in the short-term and will either mildly pull back or move sideways for a spell. I continue to believe that any and all weakness is a buying opportunity until proven otherwise.

 

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More New Highs Coming. The Celebration Continues.

Right on cue, the NASDAQ 100 followed the S&P 500 into all-time high territory. And before you ask, I still believe the Dow, S&P 400 and Russell 2000 will be there shortly. Not a single note of my tune has changed. The bull market remains alive and well and higher prices are a comin’. Of course, you wouldn’t know this from listening to the chorus of bears who remain firm that Armageddon is just around the corner.

Taking a quick at some the things that really matter, we find my four key sectors are in good shape. Semis have fully broken out and are running strong. Banks are on the verge of their breakout and that should be happening this month. While discretionary has been quiet, I think they too will see new highs before Christmas. Finally, transports are behaving constructively and I expect higher prices into year-end.

High yield bonds have been very slowly plodding higher without much attention. Their behavior remains very supportive of a growing economy and continuation of the bull market, no matter how the bears want to spin it.

My theme is unchanged. Any and all weakness is a buying opportunity until proven otherwise. The masses have hated and disavowed this bull market each and every step of the way. Until we see the majority of very wrong bears turn positive, this market will continue to rise.

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Crickets and BUT BUT BUT from the Bears

Well, the Fed cut rates as expected. Powell said they are moving to neutral or pause mode, as expected. Stocks generally liked what they heard and closed near the highs for the day. Semis have struggled a bit over the past few days but I am not concerned in the least just yet. I think they have a chance to really soar into year-end.

This morning, the employment report came in better than expected as well as seeing upward revisions to prior months. Wage growth was a solid 3%. This report was Goldilocks and very hard to poke holes in. In a recent turn, good news is good news for stocks in the pre-market. That’s a nice shift and a rare kudos from me for the Fed.

The bearish crowd with the naysayers and gloom and doom’ers have been completely silenced this week. I hear crickets from most of them and “BUT BUT BUT” from a few of them. I laughed earlier this week when stocks were 1% and people emailed and tweeted to poke fun at me. 1%! HA!!

S&P 500 is at new highs. NASDAQ 100 will be at new highs today. The Dow isn’t far behind. The S&P 400 and Russell 2000 will take a little longer but they’ll get there sooner than later. Don’t rule out a sharp move higher by year-end for the stock market.

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