Archives for March 2013

Bulls Hanging On…

Here is yesterday’s segment from CNBC’s Closing Bell.

We have month and quarter end on Thursday so I would discount any unusual action until the new month begins next week. The bulls are hanging in, trying to push the S&P 500 to an all time high and I think that should be seen since it’s only a few points away here. But my comments from the other day still hold. I see the Dow’s potential upside as 15,100 and the downside as 13,700. There are enough cracks to warrant action, but not enough to worry about the bull market ending.

So far, 2013 looks a lot like how 2012 and 2011 began. And for those who remember, this has the look and feel of 1987 for different reasons although I am definitely NOT calling for a crash!

Enjoy the holiday shortened week for those of us who have it off! I think Good Friday is the only day where Wall Street is closed but not much else is.

Again, Happy Passover and Easter for those who observe those holidays!


Dow 15,000, CNBC and more…

I am going to be on CNBC’s Closing Bell today, March 26, at 3pm discussing the S&P 500’s continued assault on all time highs as well as the latest nonsense out of Cyprus, a country with the economic output of Vermont!

As you know, we have been very bullish on stocks since mid November, especially through the overhyped fiscal cliff and sequester embarrassments. Sadly, looking at Washington’s fiscal calendar, we have many more “urgent” deadlines in 2013. Yippee! That means the media will force feed us with congressmen from both sides who just keep talking but say nothing, not to mention what comes out of the administration!!

In any case, we have greatly tempered our enthusiasm for the stock market since last week and believe it’s now appropriate to protect and/or hedge the nice profits. That certainly does not mean that stocks must go down right here or at all, but we do see the risk/reward ratio as no longer in our favor.

 Looking at the Dow, 15,100 seems like a good ceiling while 13,700 looks like a floor. I am concerned that Wall Street strategists are literally falling over themselves to be the most bullish, raising their price targets every week. The emerging markets complex (think China, Russia, Brazil, etc.) is down on the year and behaving poorly. The semiconductors, leaders in the tech sector, act heavy and want to drop more. High yield bonds have gone from leader to laggard. 

On the flip side, I still see some bright spots like the Fed printing $85B a month, banks trading very well and the number of stocks going up and down on the New York Stock Exchange continuing to hit all time highs. And that’s why I am not becoming more negative over the intermediate and long-term, at least not yet.

 Stocks are due for a rest between here, 14,600, and 15,100. Should it come, I will assess the pullback for any damage done and report back. This should not be the final nail in the bull market’s coffin. 

Happy Passover and Easter to those celebrating! 

Thank you Mother Nature for delivering another 2 feet of snow to Vermont last week! Some of us appreciate your fine work!!  

Over the next two weeks, I will be visiting the Boston area as well as the east coast of Florida. Please let me know if you would like to grab coffee or an adult beverage!

Fox Business Today at 1pm

I am going to be on Fox Business’ Markets Now today at 1pm discussing the rally in stocks, what the heck is going on in Cyprus, a little bonds and what to do with new money waiting to be invested.

Sunday night saw potentially huge losses for stocks on Monday, and although the market still opened much lower, it wasn’t as bad as forecasted and by the end of the day, it was essentially nothing. This institutional buying is a powerful force and tough to stand in front of, but when it gets exhausted, there should be an air pocket under stocks.

Market Hits Milestone After Milestone

Here is my Fox Business interview and my take on how to invest right now.

Momentum Pushes Stocks to more All Time Highs

Last week, economic data and hopes for stronger growth in consumer spending helped drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average to a new record. The S&P 500 Index closed within two points of it all-time high established a little over five years ago.
The Wall Street Journal reported that the Dow’s 10-day run of gains through Thursday marked only the fourth time the average had achieved such a feat since the end of World War II—the last time was in January 1992. Some say that stocks are very overbought and should go down from here while others say that the strong momentum will carry the major indices even higher.

So who is right?

Both parties in my opinion. Stocks are very overbought and need a pause to refresh by either going sideways for a period of time or by pulling back in price. But strong momentum like we have seen usually does not end quickly. Rather, it portends more price appreciation over the coming weeks until the momentum begins to wane. We should hopefully be able to see that in the regular canaries in the coal mine piece I update periodically.

CNBC’s Closing Bell Today at 4:10pm edt

I am going to be on CNBC’s Closing Bell today with Bill & Maria today at 4:10pm discussing the merit in investing in technology for dividends over growth.

Fox Business TODAY at 1:30pm

I am going to be on Fox Business today at 1:30pm assuming Mother Nature lets me get there! The discussion will focused on the Dow’s run to all time highs, today’s very good employment report and IF you should commit new money to stocks right here.