1 – Donald Trump is not on the ticket against the Democrats’ candidate in 2020
I find it very hard to believe that Donald Trump will want to run again in 2020. While 74 is by no means old, he will have literally done it all by that time. I think there is a binary path to his party’s nomination in 2020. First, things go so well that Trump opts to leave on top, securing his legacy with the country in great shape. On the flip side, after an amazing honeymoon, his policies get bogged down first in committee and then on the floors of Congress. For the first time in his life, he is unable to make a deal.
At the same time, Angela Merkel already lost the 2017 election in Germany and the euro currency and euro zone are breaking apart in 2018 and 2019. This causes major recessions in Europe and Asia that spillover into the U.S. Along with the bear market in stocks, Trump’s popularity and approval rating plummet so much that he is primaried by several in the GOP. Seeing no path to reelection, Trump withdraws from the race to retake control of his empire.
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