Election Model Correct… AGAIN

Thanks to FOX in CT for having me on the day before and the day after Election Day. Below are the two links to the segments.



The longest election build up in our history is finally over and the outcome was certainly not what the mainstream media and pollsters expected. Throughout October and early November, it was widely expected by ABC, CBS, NBC, MSNBC and CNN that Hillary Clinton would become our 45th president.

The major polls offered the same conclusion. However, there were three polls which favored Trump most of the fall. LA Times/USC, Rasmussen and IBD. Pundits dismissed those polls as outliers and not statistically relevant, but in the end, their methodologies embarrassed their mainstream competition.

Another correct prediction came from the stock market and our own market model. On November 4, I wrote Stock Market Predicts Trump Victory. Given the stock market’s behavior in the days, weeks and months leading up to last Friday, the model said Donald Trump would win the election.

The model had called the last five (now six) elections correctly. In similar elections where the sitting president could no longer run, I reported that a 3-1 record with 1956 being wrong. After reviewing my work, 1956 was a year where incumbent Ike ran for reelection. I should have reported 1960 where the model was again correct and now stands at 5-0 in years like this.

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Paul Schatz, President, Heritage Capital
Paul Schatz, President, Heritage Capital
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