Goldilocks

The stock market continues its Goldilocks behavior of not too hot and not too cold. Two steps up and half or one step back. On Monday, markets were a little too warm early on and that should lead to a little cooling over the coming week or so. It should be just another small pullback in an ongoing uptrend in the context of major bull market. Until proven otherwise, any and all weakness is a buying opportunity.

On the sector front, I can certainly make the case that the three key sectors look okay over the intermediate-term, but want to digest right now. Banks continue their year long consolidation while the transports have done the same thing for five months. Semiconductors just recently peaked and seem poised to lead the next leg higher during the second quarter.

Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar has pulled back in an orderly fashion at the same as long-term bonds have quietly regained almost two thirds of the first quarter’s loss. Looking out beyond the short-term, all is reasonably well.

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Comments

  1. Paul , I know that the trend is up and I know that we can’t fight but if you look at it the Dow was about 18k in early December and that is about where it is now . is this a classic top in a bull market when investors are bullish but really the market is going nowhere ? S&P same case and
    we get a small correction, rally top then a deeper correction. This occurred in September and December I think this will occur this month going into next month. don’t you think ? I am just not very confident in buy dips right now I look at stocks like CELG and KR and even IBB that are going up , and up and up no stop look like will crash don’t you think ?
    I was looking back and even saw some similar move action back in 2007 anyway maybe I am just thinking too much but I just wanna share my idea with
    thanks a lot Paul
    (I am always with you and Tinny ) Sunday night even when my wife complain LOL

    • Ricardo,
      I don’t see this as anything more than a short-term peak. Although there are lots of indicators that don’t suggest a major peak, none are more important than the NYSE A/D line. Stocks could pullback even 8 or 9% and still keep the uptrend and bull market intact.

      • Thanks paul , I gumes we can see a pull back anytime from here just need to get ready to buy the dips
        Thanks again

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